By Savannah Blackwell

TWO YEARS AGO , after Sup. Tom Ammiano helped lead a grassroots revolt against Mayor Willie Brown that ushered in a progressive majority to the San Francisco Board of Supervisors, there was little doubt who would be the board president. Following a very brief debate the progressives united behind Ammiano.

Now Ammiano, who is in his final term as a supervisor, is stepping down from the board's top spot to devote his energy to running for mayor. And the race to succeed him is shedding some interesting light on the post-Ammiano politics of the board.

Although the new board hasn't yet taken office (two seats will be decided in the Dec. 10 runoff), this much is already clear: All the loose talk two years ago of an "Ammiano machine" has turned out to be way overblown. Ammiano hasn't been able to handpick his successor.

And no clear, consensus candidate has emerged to inherit the mantle of progressive leadership on the board.

The closest contender at this point is District Three supervisor Aaron Peskin, who has Ammiano's backing. But Peskin acknowledges at this point that he's unsure he'll have the votes lined up to win the job.

And he's being openly challenged by two supervisors who had been part of the Ammiano coalition: Sups. Sophie Maxwell and Matt Gonzalez.

So far Peskin has only four votes: Ammiano, Sups. Chris Daly and Jake McGoldrick, and of course, himself. But Daly's support may be shaky: at the board's Nov. 26 Finance Committee meeting, Peskin angered Daly by moving to continue discussion of Daly's plan to reclassify a proposed live-work development in his district as a market-rate housing project. So it's not clear where Daly is ultimately going to fall.

Oddly enough, both Maxwell and Gonzalez have support from the more conservative side of the board: Sup. Gavin Newsom has told reporters he will back Maxwell, and Sup. Tony Hall has publicly indicated he will choose Gonzalez.

The swing votes are currently Sup. Gerardo Sandoval (a longtime friend of Gonzalez who hasn't made any commitments) and the two newcomers, either Eileen Hansen or Bevan Dufty from District Eight, and either Fiona Ma or Ron Dudum from District Four.

Peskin is likely to pick up at least one more vote after the election: If Ma wins, she is expected to support Peskin because he was the only supervisor who endorsed her supervisorial run from the start. And if Hansen wins, there's a chance she would support Peskin as well.

Hansen told us all three supervisors vying for the presidency have asked for her vote. But, she said, she won't make up her mind until after the Dec. 10. runoff.

"Right now I need to focus on winning," she said.

The decision is far more than ceremonial. The board president is considered second in power only to the mayor. The president has the authority to assign committee memberships and to decide which committee handles a proposed piece of legislation.

Ammiano told us he thinks Peskin has the best qualifications for the job. "I've seen Peskin in action. He can run a meeting well, and he's highly competent," Ammiano said.

And indeed, Peskin has already racked up a list of accomplishments. In March his initiative requiring a citywide vote before the San Francisco International Airport can fill in the bay for new runways won a clear victory. He has proven an effective fundraiser for other progressives and their causes, including the campaign to pass Proposition L.

Peskin is also viewed as the leader of the move to cleanup city hall: He has reduced the number of special assistants on the city payroll and reformed the job classification process. He also turned in former San Francisco Planning Commission president Hector Chinchilla for taking money from developers to help get their projects approved.

Peskin said he wants to use the position to help the board tackle such thorny issues as homelessness and the severe shortage of city funds. Some progressives, including advocates for the homeless, have criticized Ammiano for not dealing with those issues head-on and for not assuming a bigger role in laying out a cohesive legislative strategy for the progressive board.

"The era of Willie Brown is over," Peskin said. "It's now about 11 people working to coalesce in hard times, take on tough issues, and do more on waste, fraud, and abuse."

City hall sources say Brown is backing Maxwell. But Brown's main agenda is apparently to block the election of Peskin. The two have tangled over the mayor's push to expand the airport, and Brown took it personally when Peskin led the charge last year to reduce the number of special assistants working in Brown's office.

And it's way too early to rule out a Gonzalez presidency. The Green Party member holds down the board's far left flank, but he's also made friends on the other side of the table, including Newsom. And he's built some surprising alliances in the past: this summer, for example, he managed to pull the board's left and right together to put a strong public power measure on the ballot – over Ammiano's opposition.

Under board rules, if no supervisor wins outright on the first vote, the candidate with the least votes would drop out and another round of voting would take place. So if Peskin and Gonzalez face off in a final round, Gonzalez might find enough unlikely allies to mount a serious challenge.

"Let's wait until January," Gonzalez said, "when people settle in, and see how it goes."

E-mail Savannah Blackwell at savannah_blackwell@sfbg.com.